UFC Baku Predictions: Expert Picks, Methods, and Confidence Ratings for All 12 Fights
UFC Baku predictions for every fight on the June 27, 2026 card at Baku Crystal Hall. Each pick includes method of victory, projected round, and a confidence rating from 1 (coin flip) to 5 (near lock). Fiziev vs Torres headlines, but the highest-confidence plays sit deeper on the card. Below is the at-a-glance summary table followed by the full breakdown for every bout. Cross-check our picks against the live stat sheet for UFC June 27 if a card change drops between now and bell time.
UFC Baku predictions summary table
| Fight | Pick | Method | Round | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres | Rafael Fiziev | Decision | 5 | 3/5 |
| Michel Pereira Lima vs Sharaputdin Magomedov | Sharaputdin Magomedov | Decision | 3 | 4/5 |
| Brunno Ferreira vs Ikram Aliskerov | Ikram Aliskerov | TKO | 2 | 4/5 |
| Asu Almabaev vs Charles Johnson | Asu Almabaev | Decision | 3 | 4/5 |
| Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs Julius Walker | Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev | TKO | 2 | 3/5 |
| Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori | Marvin Vettori | Decision | 3 | 3/5 |
| Abus Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk | Michal Oleksiejczuk | KO | 1 | 3/5 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev vs Andrey Pulyaev | Nursulton Ruziboev | Submission | 2 | 4/5 |
| Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto | Jean Matsumoto | Decision | 3 | 3/5 |
| Daniel Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson | Andreas Gustafsson | Decision | 3 | 3/5 |
| Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo | Nazim Sadykhov | TKO | 2 | 4/5 |
| Farman Hasanov vs Eric Nolan | Farman Hasanov | Decision | 3 | 3/5 |
Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres
Lightweight (Main Event, 5 rounds) · indicative odds: Rafael Fiziev -145, Manuel Torres +125
Fiziev fights at home in front of an Azerbaijani crowd for the first time in his UFC career, and the matchup against Torres is a stylistic puzzle that rewards experience over volume. Torres has finished 15 of his 17 wins, but every previous opponent at UFC level has been a step below the elite. Fiziev has logged championship rounds against Justin Gaethje and Mateusz Gamrot. The leg-kick attrition that defined his wins over Brad Riddell and Rafael dos Anjos should slow Torres after round two and open up the body in the championship rounds.
Form analysis
Rafael Fiziev (13-4) enters with the Azerbaijan crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Tiger Muay Thai colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Manuel Torres (17-3) of Mexico brings a contrasting build out of Lobo Gym.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Manuel Torres can impose distance against Rafael Fiziev's preferred range. Born in Baku in 1993, Fiziev moved to Bishkek and then Phuket to train at Tiger Muay Thai, where he developed the kickboxing base that became his UFC calling card.
Pick and rationale
Rafael Fiziev by decision in round 5. Confidence 3/5. The confidence rating reflects a moderate lean playable as a single bet but not parlay material.
Michel Pereira Lima vs Sharaputdin Magomedov
Middleweight · indicative odds: Michel Pereira Lima +185, Sharaputdin Magomedov -225
Pereira Lima brings 32 wins and a wild striking style, but Magomedov is a measured Dagestani counter-striker who has not lost since his amateur days. The reach and timing advantage favors the Russian, who should keep this on the feet and outpoint Pereira across three rounds.
Form analysis
Michel Pereira Lima (32-14, 2 NC) enters with the Brazil crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Chute Boxe Diego Lima colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Sharaputdin Magomedov (16-1) of Russia brings a contrasting build out of Eagles MMA.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Sharaputdin Magomedov can impose distance against Michel Pereira Lima's preferred range. A veteran of more than 40 professional bouts, Pereira is known for acrobatic striking, cartwheel kicks, and an unpredictable pace.
Pick and rationale
Sharaputdin Magomedov by decision in round 3. Confidence 4/5. The confidence rating reflects strong statistical and stylistic alignment that we are comfortable parlaying.
Brunno Ferreira vs Ikram Aliskerov
Middleweight · indicative odds: Brunno Ferreira +170, Ikram Aliskerov -205
Aliskerov is the more complete fighter. His sambo base limits Ferreira's path to victory, and his right hand has finished four of his last five wins. Ferreira hits hard but tends to fade after the first round.
Form analysis
Brunno Ferreira (15-3) enters with the Brazil crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Independent colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Ikram Aliskerov (17-2) of Russia brings a contrasting build out of Tiger Muay Thai.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Ikram Aliskerov can impose distance against Brunno Ferreira's preferred range. Ferreira earned his UFC contract on the Contender Series with a vicious knockout and has split his Octagon appearances.
Pick and rationale
Ikram Aliskerov by tko in round 2. Confidence 4/5. The confidence rating reflects strong statistical and stylistic alignment that we are comfortable parlaying.
Asu Almabaev vs Charles Johnson
Flyweight · indicative odds: Asu Almabaev -280, Charles Johnson +225
Almabaev's wrestling depth and pace are too much for Johnson, who has been outwrestled by every top-tier flyweight he has faced. Expect 12 to 15 minutes of pressure grappling and a clear decision.
Form analysis
Asu Almabaev (23-3) enters with the Kazakhstan crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in MFP Astana colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Charles Johnson (19-8) of USA brings a contrasting build out of Independent.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Charles Johnson can impose distance against Asu Almabaev's preferred range. A relentless Kazakh wrestler now ranked inside the flyweight top 10.
Pick and rationale
Asu Almabaev by decision in round 3. Confidence 4/5. The confidence rating reflects strong statistical and stylistic alignment that we are comfortable parlaying.
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs Julius Walker
Light Heavyweight · indicative odds: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev -160, Julius Walker +140
Yakhyaev is 9-0 with seven stoppages and brings the better fundamentals. Walker has heavy hands but tends to load up. The Turkish prospect should manage range and break him down.
Form analysis
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (9-0) enters with the Turkey crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Iridium colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Julius Walker (7-2) of USA brings a contrasting build out of Independent.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Julius Walker can impose distance against Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev's preferred range. An undefeated Turkish light heavyweight making his Octagon debut after a strong run on the European regional scene.
Pick and rationale
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev by tko in round 2. Confidence 3/5. The confidence rating reflects a moderate lean playable as a single bet but not parlay material.
Ismail Naurdiev vs Marvin Vettori
Middleweight · indicative odds: Ismail Naurdiev +190, Marvin Vettori -230
Vettori's volume, pressure, and grappling layers are too much for Naurdiev across 15 minutes. The Italian's chin has held up against the division's heaviest hitters, and Naurdiev does not punch with that authority.
Form analysis
Ismail Naurdiev (25-8) enters with the Morocco crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Independent colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Marvin Vettori (19-9-1) of Italy brings a contrasting build out of Kings MMA.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Marvin Vettori can impose distance against Ismail Naurdiev's preferred range. The Moroccan Devil returns after a layoff.
Pick and rationale
Marvin Vettori by decision in round 3. Confidence 3/5. The confidence rating reflects a moderate lean playable as a single bet but not parlay material.
Abus Magomedov vs Michal Oleksiejczuk
Middleweight · indicative odds: Abus Magomedov +135, Michal Oleksiejczuk -160
Heavy power on both sides, but Oleksiejczuk's southpaw left hand has more recent finish history. Magomedov's chin has been tested. This one ends inside the first round either way.
Form analysis
Abus Magomedov (28-7-1) enters with the Germany crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Phoenix Hamburg colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Michal Oleksiejczuk (22-9, 1 NC) of Poland brings a contrasting build out of Berkut WCA.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Michal Oleksiejczuk can impose distance against Abus Magomedov's preferred range. A long-time European veteran with stoppage power and a kickboxing-heavy style.
Pick and rationale
Michal Oleksiejczuk by ko in round 1. Confidence 3/5. The confidence rating reflects a moderate lean playable as a single bet but not parlay material.
Nursulton Ruziboev vs Andrey Pulyaev
Middleweight · indicative odds: Nursulton Ruziboev -300, Andrey Pulyaev +240
Ruziboev is the more experienced fighter with 36 wins and a multi-discipline grappling base. Pulyaev is durable but outgunned everywhere.
Form analysis
Nursulton Ruziboev (36-9-2, 2 NC) enters with the Uzbekistan crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Independent colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Andrey Pulyaev (10-4) of Russia brings a contrasting build out of Independent.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Andrey Pulyaev can impose distance against Nursulton Ruziboev's preferred range. A veteran Uzbek finisher with sambo and judo credentials.
Pick and rationale
Nursulton Ruziboev by submission in round 2. Confidence 4/5. The confidence rating reflects strong statistical and stylistic alignment that we are comfortable parlaying.
Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto
Bantamweight · indicative odds: Bekzat Almakhan +150, Jean Matsumoto -180
Matsumoto's striking volume and submission threat edges Almakhan's wrestling-heavy approach over three rounds.
Form analysis
Bekzat Almakhan (12-3) enters with the Kazakhstan crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in MFP colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Jean Matsumoto (17-2) of Brazil brings a contrasting build out of Nova União.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Jean Matsumoto can impose distance against Bekzat Almakhan's preferred range. Kazakh wrestler with three UFC appearances and one win.
Pick and rationale
Jean Matsumoto by decision in round 3. Confidence 3/5. The confidence rating reflects a moderate lean playable as a single bet but not parlay material.
Daniel Donchenko vs Andreas Gustafsson
Welterweight · indicative odds: Daniel Donchenko +125, Andreas Gustafsson -145
Gustafsson's pressure and clinch work outpoint Donchenko's counter-striking.
Form analysis
Daniel Donchenko (13-2) enters with the Ukraine crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Independent colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Andreas Gustafsson (12-3) of Sweden brings a contrasting build out of Allstars Training Center.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Andreas Gustafsson can impose distance against Daniel Donchenko's preferred range. Ukrainian welterweight on a four-fight win streak entering the UFC.
Pick and rationale
Andreas Gustafsson by decision in round 3. Confidence 3/5. The confidence rating reflects a moderate lean playable as a single bet but not parlay material.
Nazim Sadykhov vs Matheus Camilo
Lightweight · indicative odds: Nazim Sadykhov -260, Matheus Camilo +210
Sadykhov fights at home and is the more polished striker with finishing power. Camilo is a tough out but lacks the offensive output to bank rounds.
Form analysis
Nazim Sadykhov (11-2-1) enters with the Azerbaijan crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Longo & Weidman MMA colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around switch stance work. Matheus Camilo (10-3) of Brazil brings a contrasting build out of Independent.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Matheus Camilo can impose distance against Nazim Sadykhov's preferred range. Azerbaijan-born, New York-based lightweight on a three-fight unbeaten run.
Pick and rationale
Nazim Sadykhov by tko in round 2. Confidence 4/5. The confidence rating reflects strong statistical and stylistic alignment that we are comfortable parlaying.
Farman Hasanov vs Eric Nolan
Welterweight · indicative odds: Farman Hasanov -170, Eric Nolan +150
Hasanov is undefeated and fights at home. Nolan is well-rounded but a touch behind on cage IQ.
Form analysis
Farman Hasanov (4-0) enters with the Azerbaijan crowd advantage somewhat unclear, fighting in Baku MMA colors and bringing a stylistic profile built around orthodox stance work. Eric Nolan (8-4) of USA brings a contrasting build out of Independent.
Stylistic case
The matchup turns on whether Eric Nolan can impose distance against Farman Hasanov's preferred range. Undefeated Azerbaijani prospect making his Octagon debut on home soil.
Pick and rationale
Farman Hasanov by decision in round 3. Confidence 3/5. The confidence rating reflects a moderate lean playable as a single bet but not parlay material.
Parlay recommendations
Three parlay constructions for UFC Baku, ordered by risk:
- 2-leg safe (≈ +130): Asu Almabaev + Ikram Aliskerov. Two 4-confidence picks with independent stylistic profiles.
- 3-leg moderate (≈ +280): Add Marvin Vettori at -230 to the 2-leg above. All three favorites with limited correlation.
- 5-leg lottery (≈ +1500): Almabaev + Aliskerov + Vettori + Sharaputdin Magomedov + Nazim Sadykhov. Plus-money on a Baku sweep for the home and Caucasus contingent.
For full sportsbook lines, props, and round-betting opportunities see the UFC Baku odds and betting guide. Cross-reference picks against the UFC Baku fighter stats page before committing.
Key takeaways
- Pick: Fiziev by decision in the main event, confidence 3/5.
- Highest-confidence main card play: Almabaev over Johnson at 4/5.
- Best plus-money main card play: Magomedov over Pereira at +185.
- Recommended 2-leg parlay: Almabaev + Aliskerov at roughly +130.
- Baku locals: Fiziev, Sadykhov, and Hasanov all picked to win at home.
Frequently asked questions
- Who do you pick to win Fiziev vs Torres?
- Rafael Fiziev by decision, confidence 3 out of 5. The full breakdown is on the Fiziev vs Torres main event page, but the short version is that Fiziev's striking output and championship-round experience compound across 25 minutes, while Torres's path narrows the longer the fight goes.
- What is the highest-confidence pick on UFC Baku?
- Asu Almabaev over Charles Johnson at flyweight, rated 4 out of 5 confidence. Almabaev's wrestling depth and pace are too much for Johnson, whose takedown defense has cracked against every top-tier flyweight he has faced. Look for a clear decision win for the Kazakh grappler.
- Are there any upset picks on UFC Baku?
- Yes. Michel Oleksiejczuk over Abus Magomedov is our most contrarian play among the main card fights — the line has Oleksiejczuk a modest favorite but the public is heavily on Magomedov. Among prelims, Jean Matsumoto over Bekzat Almakhan offers solid plus-money value.
- How do you rate confidence on UFC predictions?
- Our UFC Baku predictions use a 1-to-5 confidence scale. A 5 means a near-lock with overwhelming stylistic and statistical alignment. A 3 means a slight lean — playable as a single bet but not parlay material. Anything below 3 is a coin flip we are not betting.
- What is your best parlay for UFC Baku?
- Our recommended two-leg parlay is Asu Almabaev plus Ikram Aliskerov at roughly +130 combined. Both are 4-confidence picks with limited stylistic overlap. A three-leg add of Marvin Vettori pushes the parlay to approximately +280 with manageable risk.